President Joe Biden’s campaign chiefs have released a memo titled “Trump Enters The General Election Beleaguered and Ill-Equipped,” which Fox News and CNN have extensively covered. The memo, written by campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, characterizes Donald Trump as a “wounded, dangerous, and unpopular candidate.”
It suggests that Trump faces financial challenges, internal issues, and runs on an extreme agenda that is a liability with key voting blocs. The memo contrasts this with Team Biden-Harris, which is described as well-prepared, well-positioned, and coming off consistent wins, with a growing grassroots-powered war chest.
The memo addresses key questions about the candidates’ performances in consolidating their coalitions, amassing resources, and having a winning agenda and track record. It emphasizes Biden’s support among diverse groups and strong fundraising, contrasting it with Trump’s financial struggles and lack of infrastructure for the general election campaign. The memo concludes by outlining the pathway to victory for Biden, including shoring up the blue wall in the Midwest, expanding the map in Sun Belt battlegrounds, and reaching new voters.
The memo also highlights Trump’s vulnerabilities on issues such as reproductive rights and claims that his extreme agenda is not just unpopular but mobilizing voters to support Democrats. The final section discusses the campaign’s strategy for the general election, focusing on persuasion efforts, voter outreach, and the confidence that Biden’s vision will again defeat Trump’s agenda in November.
To: Interested Parties
From: Jen O’Malley Dillon, Campaign Chair; Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Campaign Manager
Subject: Trump Enters The General Election Beleaguered and Ill-Equipped
Date: March 6, 2024
The results of last night’s Super Tuesday contests cemented what we have known for some time now: Donald Trump limps into the general election as a wounded, dangerous and unpopular candidate. The Republican nominee is cash-strapped, beleaguered by a host of external issues, and is running on an extreme agenda that is already proving to be a significant liability for key voting blocs that are critical to the pathway to 270 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, Team Biden-Harris heads into the general election coming off of consistent wins up and down the ballot, maintains a historic and growing grassroots-powered war chest, and now adds a strong Super Tuesday showing last night to enter the general election well-prepared and well-positioned to win this November. Building off of last night’s momentum, tomorrow evening’s State of the Union address will provide the American people with the latest example of the stark choice they will be confronted with in November between President Biden, who remains laser-focused on delivering for the American people while running on a historically popular record of accomplishment, and Donald Trump, whose failed record and dark vision for this country is as dangerous as it is unpopular with the voters who will decide this election.
National polling, eight months out, confirms what we know to be true: this will be a very close general election contest like all modern presidential elections are – but, we have a clear path to victory. Beyond Donald Trump’s demonstrated inability to expand his appeal beyond the MAGA base, which this memo covers in detail below, upwards of 10% of voters remain undecided, much larger than the current margin between Trump and Biden in polling. And these voters are highly supportive of the policies of the Biden-Harris administration, like protecting abortion access, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, and defending the Affordable Care Act. These undecided voters are also the least tuned in to politics of any group, and heading into Super Tuesday, 31% of all voters said they are not even certain Trump will be the Republican nominee. As the general election ramps up, the campaign will aggressively engage these undecided voters, highlighting the stakes of this election to secure their votes in November.
On the metrics that matter, Team Biden-Harris is roaring into the general election on firm footing, with Donald Trump and the MAGA extremists running his operation on shaky ground. At this stage of the race, here are the key questions everyone should ask:
Which candidate is consolidating their coalition?
Which candidate is amassing the resources and building the infrastructure necessary to run a modern campaign that reaches the voters who will decide this election?
Most importantly, which candidate has a winning agenda and a winning track record at the ballot box?
For each and every one of these questions, the answer is the same: Joe Biden. Joe Biden is the only candidate in history who has beaten Donald Trump and he will do so again.
Which candidate is consolidating their coalition? Joe Biden.
Throughout the Democratic primary, President Biden has shown strong support in diverse states with Black, Latino, white working class, and suburban voters – the winning coalition that sent him and Kamala Harris to the White House four years ago:
In New Hampshire, Joe Biden wasn’t even on the ballot and won a historic, grassroots-led, write-in campaign by an overwhelming margin.
In South Carolina, President Biden exceeded turnout expectations and received at least 95% of the vote in every single county — rural, urban, suburban, majority white, and majority Black counties — consolidating support and greatly expanding on his 28-point victory in 2020.
In Nevada, President Biden won over 90% of the vote and in Michigan over 80% of the vote in high turnout elections for uncontested primaries — both diverse states that reflect the Biden-Harris coalition.
On Super Tuesday, President Biden cemented the nomination with strong performances across the country, on par or exceeding the performance of other winning incumbents.
Donald Trump’s primary performances are a major warning sign for the GOP, and an opportunity for President Biden to expand his coalition. Trump heads into the general election unable to expand his support beyond the hardcore MAGA base:
Even as Trump appears poised to win the nomination, he has not consolidated Republican Party support. Nikki Haley has no path to the nomination, yet she continues to win a significant share of votes — 19% in Iowa, 43% in New Hampshire, 40% in South Carolina, 27% in Michigan. On Super Tuesday, Haley continued to win a significant share of Republican primary voters (including a victory in Vermont). Trump can’t expand his reach beyond the MAGA base – in exit poll after exit poll, he has consolidated support only among the most conservative voters.
A significant share of moderate and Haley voters across the country are saying that Trump cannot count on their votes in a general election. In the first four contests: approximately 60% of Haley voters in South Carolina, two-thirds in Iowa, and three-quarters in New Hampshire said they would not support Trump in the general. These Haley supporters are not Democrats crossing over to vote in the Republican primary, and this trend continued to Super Tuesday: exit polls showed 69% of Haley voters in California, 68% in Virginia, and 78% in North Carolina would not commit to supporting Trump in the general election.
Trump is greatly underperforming with the voters who will decide the election in November. Trump continues to lose moderates (winning just 22% in IA, 22% in NH, 25% in SC), and underperform among suburban voters (like those in the the critical Michigan suburban counties like Washtenaw, Oakland, and Kent.) On Super Tuesday, Trump continued to show weakness with suburban voters. In Virginia, Haley beat Trump in Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax counties, while in North Carolina, she overperformed her statewide support in key suburban counties, including Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham and Orange counties.
So far, at least 1 in 3 Republican primary voters think that Donald Trump would be unfit for the presidency if convicted of a crime.
Which candidate is amassing the resources and building the infrastructure necessary to reach the voters and run a modern campaign? Joe Biden.
Team Biden-Harris enters the election with a historic war chest. Since its launch, Team Biden-Harris has raised nearly $280 million, and finished January with a historic $130 million in cash on hand, the highest total amassed by any Democratic candidate in history at this point in the cycle. This operation has been powered by a record-breaking grassroots fundraising operation — a strong sign of enthusiasm among our base. February was our strongest grassroots fundraising month since launch — the fourth consecutive record-breaking month for our grassroots program. It’s not just the campaign: Groups allied with Biden are flush with resources and have already committed to spending more than $700 million to help him beat Donald Trump again.
While Republicans are fighting it out in the primary, our campaign has been putting infrastructure in place to reach the voters who will decide this election. As we enter the persuasion phase of the general election, we’ve hired state leadership teams in the core battleground states with experience running and winning elections in these pivotal states. These teams supplement the hundreds of state party staff whose operations on the ground on behalf of Democrats up and down the ballot were boosted by a historic $95 million investment for the 2022 midterms — with more teams in other expansion states and key congressional districts on the way. These teams’ efforts are also bolstered by a historic and early investment into non-traditional advertising, including high-impact television moments and programming, digital ads, and the largest and earliest investments into Black, AAPI, and Hispanic media ever.
Donald Trump and the Republican Party enter the general election cash-strapped and straddled with insurmountable costs. In January, Trump’s campaign raised $8.8 million while spending around $11.5 million, ending the month $2.6 million in the hole. His super PAC is further in the hole: in the entire month of January, it spent more than it raised. If it couldn’t get any worse, the national Republican Party that will serve as the backbone of his general election campaign is in complete disarray: 2023 was the RNC’s worst fundraising year in almost a decade. And we’ve yet to mention what appears to be an issue that will not go away this cycle: Trump’s political operation has had to shell out several million per month on legal costs — an amount that accounted for approximately one-third of their total spending last year with that number expected to get even worse.
If their finances sound bad, Trump and the RNC have zero infrastructure to run a general election campaign. Trump’s campaign has also not announced any battleground states programs or staff, and the limited investments his team has made into actual voter outreach have been directed toward primary voters. But the Trump campaign’s lack of investments only scratches the surface of their woes:
Republican Party officials are increasingly worried that “dangerously low finances” in state Republican parties will leave Trump “hamstrung on party infrastructure in key battleground states.” The RNC is so cash-strapped that party officials have discussed tapping a line of credit to maintain operations until they can secure additional funding. The Arizona GOP was “desperately” forced to beg the RNC for additional funds “to keep the lights on” because it was drowning in debt from legal bills related to putting forward alternate electors falsely claiming Trump won the 2020 election. Scandal follows Trump: we see the same story playing out in key GOP state parties in Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, and Florida — all plagued by personal scandals and mismanagement.
During the 2022 midterms, only seven of the thirty-eight outreach centers that targeted voters of color remained open after failing to renew their leases. Republican sources said the community centers may have been closed due to the party’s financial troubles caused by a lack of donations and funding.
Not to mention, it remains an open question whether the money that will be raised will go toward the election or the frontrunner’s assorted … external fees.
Most importantly, which candidate has a winning agenda and a winning track record at the ballot box? Joe Biden.
President Biden and Vice President Harris are running on a historic and popular agenda that is winning Democrats election after election. More than 8 in 10 Americans support the President’s success capping insulin and lowering prescription drug costs, two-thirds of Americans are bothered that the super wealthy don’t pay their fair share and 70% of all Americans support finally making big corporations pay a minimum tax rate, and an overwhelming majority of Americans support strengthening and protecting Social Security and Medicare.
On the other side, Donald Trump is offering voters the anti-freedom, anti-democracy, and anti-American agenda that has cost MAGA Republicans election after election.
Few issues expose Donald Trump’s vulnerabilities with key voters more than reproductive rights — an issue that has and will remain top of mind for voters over the next eight months as the fallout from Trump overturning Roe dominates headlines. By a 2:1 margin, voters support abortion access and 86% of all voters support IVF — both of which are at risk because of Trump. Further, 65% of Republicans and 83% of Independents oppose a federal law banning abortion nationwide, which Trump has increasingly embraced in recent weeks. And 4 in 5 voters say a candidate’s position on reproductive rights will be relevant to their vote in November. This reinforces what we continue to see throughout the Republican primary and in elections in the aftermath of the Dobbs decision: Donald Trump — who is on tape bragging about overturning Roe and insisting that women should face punishment for receiving abortion care — has a very real and enduring problem among suburban and women voters who will be key to winning in November.
Trump’s extreme agenda isn’t just unpopular: it’s mobilizing Americans to vote for Democrats at the ballot box. Recent primary results are a continuation of a broader electoral trend in 2020, 2022, and 2023 that can be summarized succinctly: Under Donald Trump, Republicans lose. Under Joe Biden, Democrats just keep winning.
And Donald Trump isn’t letting up on his extreme and unpopular agenda — he’s doubling down. On the eve of Super Tuesday, he referred to immigrants as “cannibals” and said they were “poisoning the blood of the country.” He continues to peddle election denialism. And he’s reaffirmed his support for a national abortion ban.
Pathway to 270: Strengthening our coalition, expanding the map and reaching new voters
As we approach the general election, President Biden is presented with a strong map and multiple pathways to 270 — a testament to a strong, popular, and winning agenda. Donald Trump — running on a national abortion ban, tax cuts for the rich, and election denialism — is not afforded that same fortune.
Shoring up the blue wall and expanding the map. The Biden-Harris campaign will shore up the “blue wall” in the Midwest and, at the same time, invest in key Sun Belt battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina where Democrats have seen successes in recent years. The campaign will also seize on opportunities in states where the Biden-Harris coalition is uniquely strong and the extreme MAGA agenda is increasingly unpopular like Florida.
Donald Trump’s path is limited and his coalition is hemorrhaging. Donald Trump does not have the same pathway to the White House. His extreme agenda has lost him critical votes in suburban and exurban areas in key battlegrounds, which his primary contest with Nikki Haley has only reinforced. Primary after primary has exposed deep divisions among Republicans to Donald Trump’s detriment — particularly with moderate and suburban voters who will be critical to victory in November.
As voters tune into the election, President Biden can expand his coalition and consolidate his support. Today’s media consumption is more fragmented and personalized than ever, and for most Americans, the November election has not yet become a daily topic at the kitchen table.
Last night, however, every network broke into special coverage for Super Tuesday — an example of how the choice Americans face at the ballot box will become increasingly clear in the upcoming months. With that in mind, Team Biden-Harris will scale up its persuasion efforts and voter outreach to not just the coalition that turned out in historic numbers to send us to the White House in 2020, but the expanded electorate that has been picked up in cycles since — voters who have rejected Donald Trump’s extreme agenda and voted increasingly for Democrats.
Bottom Line: The road to victory is about earning, not just asking for, the American people’s support. That means putting in the work in every community, meeting voters where they are about the stakes of this election, and investing everywhere. We are confident that the President and Vice President’s vision for unity, freedom, and progress will again defeat Donald Trump’s extremist, dangerous agenda this November.
