As the 2024 election cycle kicks off, White House officials and those close to President Joe Biden are growing increasingly concerned about the surge of former President Donald Trump in the polls. Over the past year, Biden’s approval ratings have been on the decline while Trump’s popularity has risen, causing heightened anxiety among Democrats.
A recent survey on Biden’s job performance, dissected by pollster Richard Baris, revealed a concerning trend. Key demographic groups, crucial for Democratic support, are not only disapproving of Biden but are abandoning him in significant numbers. Baris describes the situation as a “CODE RED” in the political world, signaling a severe collapse of Biden’s political standing.
The Suffolk/USAToday Poll highlighted that Biden’s standing is historically lower than Barack Obama at a similar point in his presidency (who won) and significantly lower than Donald Trump (who lost). Trump is gaining ground among key Democratic constituencies, such as Hispanics and those under 35, making the situation even more precarious for Biden.
Baris emphasizes that the traditional presidential slump isn’t at play here, and the media’s attempts to downplay the severity of the situation are evident. Additionally, the strategist notes that enthusiasm and voting likelihood are distinct, with higher turnout favoring Trump.
Adding to the complexity, a strategist at JPMorgan Chase, Michael Cembalest, has suggested that Biden might withdraw from the race due to declining health, predicting an exit between Super Tuesday and the November election. Cembalest anticipates a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris as a potential successor, despite her historical unpopularity.
The evolving political landscape raises uncertainties about the Democratic Party’s strategy and the potential impact on the 2024 presidential race. As Trump gains momentum, Democrats face the challenge of navigating a shifting political landscape and managing internal concerns about Biden’s candidacy.
